Will this volcano explode, or just ooze? A new mechanism could hold some answers

An international team of researchers has discovered a new mechanism that can trigger the formation of bubbles in magma – a major driver of volcanic eruptions. The finding could improve our understanding of volcanic hazards by improving models of magma flow through conduits beneath Earth’s surface.
Volcanic eruptions are thought to occur when magma deep within the Earth’s crust decompresses. This decompression allows volatile chemicals dissolved in the magma to escape in gaseous form, producing bubbles. The more bubbles there are in the viscous magma, the faster it will rise, until eventually it tears itself apart.
“This process can be likened to a bottle of sparkling water containing dissolved volatiles that exolve when the bottle is opened and the pressure is released,” explains Olivier Roche, a member of the volcanology team at the Magmas and Volcanoes Laboratory (LMV) at the Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA) in France and lead author of the study.
Magma shearing forces could induce bubble nucleation
The new work, however, suggests that this explanation is incomplete. In their study, Roche and colleagues at UCA, the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), Brown University in the US and ETH Zurich in Switzerland began with the assumption that the mechanical energy in magma comes from the pressure gradient between the nucleus of a gas bubble and the ambient liquid. “However, mechanical energy may also be provided by shear stress in the magma when it is in motion,” Roche notes. “We therefore hypothesized that magma shearing forces could induce bubble nucleation too.”
To test their theory, the researchers reproduced the internal movements of magma in liquid polyethylene oxide saturated with carbon dioxide at 80°C. They then set up a device to observe bubble nucleation in situ while the material was experiencing shear stress. They found that the energy provided by viscous shear is large enough to trigger bubble formation – even if decompression isn’t present.
The effect, which the team calls shear-induced bubble nucleation, depends on the magma’s viscosity and on the amount of gas it contains. According to Roche, the presence of this effect could help researchers determine whether an eruption is likely to be explosive or effusive. “Understanding which mechanism is at play is fundamental for hazard assessment,” he says. “If many gas bubbles grow deep in the volcano conduit in a volatile-rich magma, for example, they can combine with each other and form larger bubbles that then open up degassing conduits connected to the surface.
“This process will lead to effusive eruptions, which is counterintuitive (but supported by some earlier observations),” he tells Physics World. “It calls for the development of new conduit flow models to predict eruptive style for given initial conditions (essentially volatile content) in the magma chamber.”
Enhanced predictive power
By integrating this mechanism into future predictive models, the researchers aim to develop tools that anticipate the intensity of eruptions better, allowing scientists and local authorities to improve the way they manage volcanic hazards.
Looking ahead, they are planning new shear experiments on liquids that contain solid particles, mimicking crystals that form in magma and are believed to facilitate bubble nucleation. In the longer term, they plan to study combinations of shear and compression, though Roche acknowledges that this “will be challenging technically”.
They report their present work in Science.
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