Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the UK jobs report for October-December 2025

The chances of a cut to UK interest rates next month have risen, following this morning’s data showing a rise in unemployment and a slowdown in wage growth.

The City money markets now indicate there’s a near-75% chance that the Bank of England lowers interest rates to 3.5% at its next meeting, in March, up from 69% last night.

Unemployment is up and hiring surveys are still getting worse. That said, the weakness is still heavily concentrated in consumer-facing industries – a legacy of last year’s sizable payroll tax (National Insurance) and National Living Wage increases. Hospitality payrolled employment may be down almost 3% since the start of 2025, but it is still 2% higher than pre-Covid levels. Yet economic output is still 6% below – suggesting the loss of jobs may have further to run.

Outside of these consumer-centric industries, the story looks more benign. Employment is still trending down across the wider private sector on a three-month average of payrolls growth, but only slightly. We’re also not seeing a particularly noticeable pick-up in redundancies across the economy. Vacancy numbers have stopped falling, too.

“Today’s data raises the prospect of the Bank of England resuming cutting interest rates in March. The MPC will be reassured by further evidence of pay pressures easing, and the labour market continuing to soften. The Bank may also want to minimise downside risks to the labour market and lower rates ahead of the next forecast meeting in April.

“Headline pay growth eased in December, falling from 4.4% to 4.2%. The fall in headline pay was partly driven by an easing in public sector wage settlements, which fell for the first time since July 2025. Demand for labour remains weak which has curtailed workers’ bargaining power, meanwhile falling costs for households should also temper pay demand amongst workers. We expect pay growth to fall to 3% by the end of 2026.

“Following a November where hiring plans were put on hold due to the budget, things are yet to get going again, potentially highlighting the longer-term impacts of increases costs that businesses have faced.

Increased minimum wage costs, national insurance contributions, business rates and concerns around the impact of the Employment Rights Act continues to show up in the data and appears to be putting a weight on the economy. Economic indicators were beginning to shine some positivity but that has arguably been wiped by this latest data.

“There are strong signs that the labour market is continuing to loosen as wage growth including bonuses has eased to 4.2% and the rate of unemployment has risen to 5.2%.

“Wage growth is being propped up by the public sector and the number of unemployed people per vacancy now sits at 2.6, the highest in more than 10 years if the pandemic period is excluded.

“While overall employment appears broadly stable and the rise in redundancies has slowed, the pain is not evenly spread. Young people, disabled people and men are bearing the brunt of the rise.

“Youth unemployment is now at 14.0%, the highest rate for five years. This is particularly concerning as the number of 18-24 year olds out of work has jumped by 80,000 on the quarter to 575,000. More young people are actively seeking work, but too many are struggling to secure it.

Despite the best efforts of the fine cast this psychological thriller about a war correspondent returning to her home town falls short of exploring the full scope of family trauma

Fans of Nuala Ellwood’s bestselling psychological thriller about a war reporter revisiting the horrors of her childhood in Herne Bay may decide to stick with the book after this drab adaptation. Like a black sock that has infiltrated a wash-load of white bedsheets, the story has come out a dreary dull grey. The movie is stubbornly unintriguing despite a fine cast of actors doing their utmost. Even the almighty twist ending fails to pick up the pace.

Jenny Seagrove plays Kate Rafter, a hardened correspondent haunted by PTSD. She’s back from a stint in Aleppo for her mum’s funeral and staying in her childhood home. Seagrove plays it imperiously, eyes flashing; Kate has witnessed terrible atrocities, and seems irritated by the smallness of the lives in her home town. But she is raw and damaged; there are flashbacks to Iraq where she befriended a young boy, and some unconvincing scenes of sessions with a psychologist trying to unpick the trauma of her childhood in a home terrorised by a violent alcoholic father. When Kate starts hearing a child crying in the next door house, no one believes her.

Three women, two real and one fictional, seek social justice in an ambitious novel that explores power in 1970s America

What kind of justice can we have in a world driven by power? The actor turned writer Sophie Ward likes to fuel her novels with philosophical conundrums and set herself complex writerly challenges. Her ingenious, Booker-longlisted Love and Other Thought Experiments was structured around philosophical thought experiments, from Pascal’s Wager to Descartes’ Demon, with a chapter narrated by an ant living inside a character’s brain. The Schoolhouse explored the ethics of self-directed schooling and of policing in a complicated cross-period procedural. Now she turns her attention to questions of justice, freedom and power in the 1970s United States, with a tripartite structure bringing together three women – two real and one imagined.

It’s 1971: the Manson Family have just been found guilty and hundreds of thousands are marching against the Vietnam war. In the Netherlands, 25-year-old Andrea Dworkin escapes her abusive husband and attends a debate between Chomsky and Foucault on justice and power. Back in the US, the poet Muriel Rukeyser throws herself into protesting once again, though her lover, the literary agent Monica McCall, tells her rightly that her health won’t stand it. The third character is loosely based on the family history of Ward’s own Korean-American wife. Phyllis Patterson welcomes her son home to rural Illinois from the army base in South Korea, and attempts to build a relationship with her new Korean daughter-in-law and grandchildren. All three women are testing their own capacity for justice in an unjust world.

The iconic photographer believed his two years shooting horse fairs, pubs and dance halls in the 1980s had been overlooked. A new exhibition aims to put that right

Many women reading this will have experienced something similar: a warning that sharing public space isn’t a man’s job, it’s a woman’s

What motivates a stranger to push a woman in public? That’s a question I’ve been stuck on this week after a man shoved me out of his way on an empty pedestrian street. I didn’t even see him coming – well, I wouldn’t have, as he came up from behind me.

I had walked in his path, he barked at me. “What path?” I thought, baffled, as I took in the huge expanse of empty pavement around us. I was so stupefied by the encounter that I found myself frozen to the spot, watching him walk away in his blue anorak and technical rucksack. He could have been any man from anywhere on his way to work.

Lucy Pasha-Robinson is a Guardian assistant Opinion editor

Tarique Rahman set to take oath and become prime minister after landslide victory prompted by ousting of Sheikh Hasina

Bangladesh’s incoming prime minister Tarique Rahman and other politicians were sworn into parliament on Tuesday, becoming the first elected representatives since a deadly 2024 uprising.

Rahman is set to take over from an interim government that has led the country of 170 million people for 18 months since the autocratic government of Sheikh Hasina was overthrown.

Reina Sofía’s three-year rehang of works by artists from Spain and beyond is billed as a ‘critical reinterpretation’

The Reina Sofía’s new rehang opens, quite pointedly, with a painting of a detained man sitting, head bowed and wrists shackled, as he waits for the arbitrary hand of institutional bureaucracy to decide his fate.

The picture, Document No …, was painted by Juan Genovés in 1975, the year Francisco Franco died and Spain began its transition to democracy after four decades of dictatorship. Genovés’s faceless, everyman victim of the Franco regime’s control and repression is the natural starting point for the Madrid museum’s exploration of the past 50 years of contemporary art in Spain.

This bold, traditional taste of Vietnam is a joy both by name and to eat

There’s something endearing and confident about a dish named after the feeling it gives you. Bánh khoái means “delight” or “joy” cake. This crisp, savoury pancake originates from Hue, the historic capital of Vietnam’s central region. Traditionally served with a rich hoisin dipping sauce, my take swaps that out for a lighter nước chấm with sesame seeds. It stays true to the spirit of the original, though, preserving its joyful texture and bold, satisfying flavours, while using more accessible ingredients.

This recipe is an edited extract from One Pan Vietnam, by Thuy Diem Pham, published by Quadrille at £22.

• Selectors under fire after Steve Smith unused against Sri Lanka

• Fate now rests with Ireland and Sri Lanka beating Zimbabwe

Australia’s aura as a white-ball heavyweight has all but petered out in the space of two disastrous defeats at the T20 World Cup where the absence of their champion fast bowlers has been ruthlessly exposed.

Following an abject 23-run defeat to world No 11 Zimbabwe, Australia crashed to an eight-wicket loss to co-hosts Sri Lanka in Kandy on Monday to be pushed to the brink of a humiliating exit.

London police say criminal gangs are using Snapchat to offer cash rewards of up to £380 for stolen iPhones

Gangs are recruiting children to go out to steal smartphones before they head to school, using Snapchat to offer rewards of up to £380 for the latest Apple iPhones, police have revealed.

The Metropolitan police said they were deploying new resources including drones and Surron ebikes to chase suspects as they step up their fight against phone snatching.

• Brentford coach praises non-league side’s advances

• Manager John Rooney proud of Macclesfield’s efforts

Keith Andrews made a beeline for the Macclesfield dressing room after Brentford’s fourth-round FA Cup victory at Moss Rose and told John Rooney and his players they had been immense against his Premier League charges.

The Brentford head coach said footballing journeys like the one Macclesfield have enjoyed since their rebirth “fills my heart” as he waxed lyrical about the true test his team were given by the National League North outfit.

Exclusive: Expert analysis of images from one hospital suggests severe trauma to the face, chest and genitals was caused by metal birdshot and high-calibre bullets

Across the planes of Anahita’s* face, white dots shine like a constellation. Some gleam from inside the sockets of her eyes, others are scattered over the young woman’s chin, forehead, cheekbones. A few float over the dark expanse of her brain.

Each dot represents a metal sphere, about 2-5mm in size, fired from the barrel of a shotgun and revealed by the X-ray camera for a CT scan. Shot from a distance, the projectiles, known as “birdshot”, spray widely, losing some of their momentum. At close range, they can crack bone, blast through the soft tissue of the face, and easily pierce the eyeball’s delicate globe. Anahita, who is in her early 20s, has lost at least one eye, possibly both.

Japanese prime minister’s refusal to back down over Taiwan comments brings more criticism and travel warnings from China

Chinese tourists are continuing to shun Japan in large numbers, with the country falling out of the top 10 destinations for those celebrating the lunar new year with a trip abroad.

Japan has had a dramatic drop in the number of Chinese visitors since the end of last year as a diplomatic row between Tokyo and Beijing over the security of Taiwan continues.

Survey by Australian Human Rights Commission found universities failed to meet duty of care, while complaints processes were ‘Kafkaesque’

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Racism is “systemic” at Australia’s universities, according to a landmark report found students have mocked their Palestinian peers with shouts of “terrorism”, some students have been followed by campus security and First Nations students have been compared to “petrol sniffers” in lecture halls.

The report also found Jewish students were fearful to attend classes, with one harassed for wearing their kippa walking to class and another who described people screaming “send them to the camps” at a group of Jews on campus.

By trusting the US, we handed Trump a kill switch. Yet Europe’s digital sovereignty is an achievable goal

The French judge Nicolas Guillou knows exactly how deep Europe’s dependence on US tech is. Guillou and his colleagues at the international criminal court are under US sanctions. They can no longer use e-commerce, book hotels online or hire a car. Their home smart devices ignore them. Credit cards from European banks no longer function, because Europe has still not developed its own EU-wide payments system, so most electronic purchases go through Visa and Mastercard. Converting euros to foreign currencies is extraordinarily difficult because everything passes through dollars. Living in Europe is no protection against Donald Trump bricking your digital life.

This dependence is not limited to mod-cons. Last year, the chairman of the Danish parliament’s defence committee said that he regretted his part in Denmark’s decision to buy US-made F-35 fighter jets: “I can easily imagine a situation where the USA will demand Greenland from Denmark and will threaten to deactivate our weapons and let Russia attack us when we refuse. Buying American weapons is a security risk that we can not run.” He is not alone. Spain has abandoned plans to buy F-35s.

Johnny Ryan is director of Enforce, a unit of the Irish Council for Civil Liberties

Civil society groups and individuals from around world are working to aid Ukraine by damaging Moscow’s war machine

In August 2022, Olena Yurchenko stumbled across a heated discussion on a Russian-language online forum – and made a discovery that would ultimately affect US and European sanctions policy on the Ukraine war.

The war had begun six months earlier. Yurchenko, 22, had been forced to leave Ukraine for Latvia after Russian strikes on her home town in the north. She had joined a nascent effort to pressure western companies to move their operations out of Russia. But the “name and blame” tactic only went so far, she said.

The growing number of birds in Norwich market has pushed the council to adopt extreme measures – including a hawk and oral contraceptives. But for the city’s pigeon-loving activists, they are just misunderstood creatures

At nine o’clock on Saturday morning, Norwich market is only just stirring: shutters are still down and the aisles are quiet. In the nearby Memorial Gardens, however, a large crowd has already gathered: the market’s pigeons are waiting to be fed.

Jenny Coupland arrives on the scene a little later than her usual hour, with a backpack brimming with seed. As she begins doling it out, the birds descend from their perches and cover the ground, pecking furiously. The sun catches their bobbing heads, sending iridescent shimmers across their brown and grey feathers.

His novel was praised for giving a voice to the victims of Algeria’s brutal civil war. But one woman has accused Kamel Daoud of having stolen her story – and the ensuing legal battle has become about much more than literary ethics

Every November, leading figures of French literature gather in the upstairs room of an old-fashioned Paris restaurant and decide on the best novel of the year. The ceremony is staid, traditional, down to the restaurant’s menu, full of classic dishes such as vol-au-vents and foie gras on toast. In pictures of the judging ceremony, the judges wear dark suits; each has four glasses of wine at hand.

The winner of the Goncourt, as the prize is called, is likely to enter the pantheon of world literature, joining a lineage of writers that includes Marcel Proust and Simone de Beauvoir. The prize is also a financial boon for authors. As the biggest award in French literature, the Goncourt means a prime spot in storefronts, foreign rights, prestige. By one estimate, winning the Goncourt means nearly €1m of sales in the weeks that follow.

From The West Wing to The Simpsons, House and now Industry, TV baddies have made a tongue-in-cheek Gilbert and Sullivan show tune their own

Warning: this article contains spoilers for Industry season four, episode six.

If you’re up to date with Industry (if you’re not, proceed with caution) then you’ll know that Kit Harington’s character Henry Muck has spent season four being even more of a nightmare than usual. He has been depressed, intoxicated, suicidal and horny in equal measure, all of which was topped off in the most recent episode with a sweaty bunk-up with a guy in a club.

Ukraine is probably leveraging a recent block on Russian troops’ access to Starlink, says Institute for the Study of War; Trump says he wants Kyiv deal with Moscow ‘fast’. What we know on day 1,455

Recognised with an honorary Academy Award in 2016, Wiseman directed and produced almost 50 films with a lifelong commitment to curiosity and naturalism

Frederick Wiseman, the prolific film-maker whose documentaries primarily explored US public institutions and communities, has died aged 96.

His death on Monday was announced in a joint statement from the Wiseman family and his production company, Zipporah Films.

Unnamed suspect accused of planning to bomb one of singer’s Eras tour shows in Vienna

Austrian prosecutors have filed terrorism-related charges against a 21-year-old who they say planned to attack one of Taylor Swift’s concerts in Vienna in August 2024.

Three dates in Swift’s record-breaking Eras tour were cancelled after authorities warned of the plot.

Cooper is leaving the fabled news show after nearly 20 years amid a shake-up under new editor-in-chief Bari Weiss

Anderson Cooper will leave the CBS News program 60 Minutes after nearly two decades, he said on Monday, in the latest staffing shake-up to hit the storied news magazine amid broader newsroom changes under the new editor-in-chief, Bari Weiss.

“Being a correspondent at 60 Minutes has been one of the great honors of my career. I got to tell amazing stories, and work with some of the best producers, editors and camera crews in the business,” Cooper said in a statement. “For nearly twenty years, I’ve been able to balance my jobs at CNN and CBS, but I have little kids now and I want to spend as much time with them as possible, while they still want to spend time with me.”

Yoon Suk Yeol could face the death penalty when judges rule on the martial law crisis that many in South Korea see as a dark moment they would rather forget

South Korea is awaiting one of the most consequential court rulings in decades this week, with judges due to deliver their verdict on insurrection charges against the former president Yoon Suk Yeol and prosecutors demanding the death penalty.

When Yoon stands in courtroom 417 of Seoul central district court on Thursday to hear his fate, which will be broadcast live, he will do so in the same room where the military dictator Chun Doo-hwan was sentenced to death three decades ago. The charge is formally the same. Last time, it took almost 17 years and a democratic transition to deliver a verdict. This time, it has taken 14 months. Chun’s death sentence was later reduced to life imprisonment on appeal, and he was eventually pardoned.