With conflict averted for now, European leaders will be tempted to retreat to their comfort zone of cowardice. But the next crisis will soon be here

Donald Trump’s climbdown, after days of escalation during which he had refused to rule out a military attack to annex Greenland, was spectacular. In his Davos speech, Trump repeated his desire to own Greenland, claiming that you cannot defend what you do not own, only to then announce that he would not conquer the Arctic island by force. Hours later, he claimed that he had reached an unspecified deal on Greenland, and would therefore refrain from imposing additional tariffs on those European countries that had had the audacity to participate in a joint military exercise in Greenland at Denmark’s invitation.

We know neither the details of the framework agreement reached by Trump and the Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, nor whether it carries any weight, given the US president’s fickleness. But it appears that the deal, while open to discussing Arctic security, mineral rights and possibly even the sovereignty of US bases, preserves Greenland’s sovereignty within the Kingdom of Denmark. In short, this has been a remarkable U-turn.

Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist