A quick landgrab has distorted into a complex geopolitical conflict – and even Trump’s fulminations can’t seem to make Ukrainians give in

Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine entered its fifth year on 24 February, with no end in sight despite Russia’s vast material superiority.

Most experts expected Ukraine’s defeat within days. Russia’s population is more than three times Ukraine’s, its GDP around 10 times bigger, its army far larger, its arsenal of tanks, artillery, missiles and warplanes greater. Russia’s leadership, Putin included, expected Ukrainians to capitulate, perhaps even to welcome Russian troops. US and British intelligence predicted the war early, but also projected a rapid Russian victory.

Rajan Menon is a professor emeritus of international relations at the City College of New York and a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies

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