Little sign Moscow’s ability to continue waging war for a fifth year is diminished, analysis suggests

Russia will be able to sustain its invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026 even allowing for emerging economic and manpower pressures, while its missile and drone threat to Europe is growing, according to a leading military thinktank.

Bastian Giegerich, the director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there was “little indication” that “Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine for a fifth year is diminished”.

With the Russian military performing poorly, Ukraine is clarifying strategy and pushing back with modest success

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth grim year, has already gone on longer than the entire fight on the eastern front in the second world war. The Soviets marched from the gates of Leningrad to Berlin in a little over 15 months in 1944-45; today the Russian rate of gain in Pokrovsk in Ukraine is 70 metres a day, in Kupiansk, 23 metres, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The gains are trivial, given Ukraine’s size, amounting to 1,865 sq miles during 2025 (about 0.8% of the country) – so the idea touted by the Russians, sometimes accepted by a credulous White House, that Ukraine is suffering a slow-motion defeat, is not accurate. In reality, even allowing for the fact that hundreds of thousands of homes are without electricity, heating and water after Russian bombing, Ukraine is clarifying its strategy and pushing back with modest success.