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Forecasting the world in 2026

FT writers’ predictions for the new year, from the likelihood of higher Trump tariffs to the future of interest rates and the arrival of humanoid helpers

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I could not forgive the father who left me. Until a chance encounter changed my outlook | Carolin Würfel

In 2025 I learned that reconciliation is less about a grand apology than a shift in perspective

Forgiveness isn’t a destination. It’s a journey. Mine began on an escalator at Berlin Brandenburg airport. It was a Sunday afternoon. I was heading up to the check-in counters for my return flight to Istanbul, where I’ve lived for the past few years. On the other side, people were heading down – fresh off flights into Berlin. I was daydreaming, my eyes drifting across bags and figures, when I paused at a brown leather bag and a light linen suit. Charming travel outfit, I thought. Relaxed. Timeless. Someone must’ve had a lovely weekend, maybe somewhere on the Mediterranean. I only saw the man’s face as he passed me – and suddenly I couldn’t breathe.

I knew him. He was my father.

Carolin Würfel is a writer, screenwriter and journalist who lives in Berlin and Istanbul. She is the author of Three Women Dreamed of Socialism

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© Photograph: Angelika Warmuth/Reuters

© Photograph: Angelika Warmuth/Reuters

© Photograph: Angelika Warmuth/Reuters

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Ten English fire services tackled record number of grass, forest and crop fires in 2025

Fire chief says summer, the UK’s hottest on record, was ‘one of the most challenging for wildfires that we’ve ever faced’

Ten English fire services tackled a record number of grassland, woodland and crop fires during what was the UK’s hottest spring and summer on record, figures show.

In total nearly 27,000 wildfires were dealt with by fire services in England during the prolonged dry weather of 2025, according to analysis by PA Media.

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© Photograph: Eastern Goodwin Media/Alamy

© Photograph: Eastern Goodwin Media/Alamy

© Photograph: Eastern Goodwin Media/Alamy

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What happened next: Valerie the dachshund taught us how to survive – and thrive

We could learn a lot from the pampered sausage dog who became a canine Bear Grylls. Perhaps all of us are capable of more than we might expect

Who among us hasn’t yearned, at least momentarily, to cast off the trappings of our comfortable lives and live wild, unfettered and free? This year someone showed us the way: a charismatic Aussie sausage dog (I believe that’s “snag” in local vernacular). Whether you already carry Valerie the miniature dachshund’s story in your heart or managed, somehow, to miss the pint-sized phenomenon’s incredible journey, join me as we revisit this heart-warming tale.

In November 2023, Valerie was a one-year-old “absolute princess” of a pup – those are the words of her emotional support human, Georgia Gardner, who received the sausage as a graduation gift. A diminutive 15cm high, she needed a ramp to help her get into bed in her New South Wales home and wore a pink sweater in chilly weather, with matching pink collar and lead. But Valerie chose to swap her pampered life of roast chicken and pupuccinos for freedom in the dangerous wilds of Kangaroo Island, South Australia, escaping while Gardner and boyfriend Josh Fishlock were on holiday there.

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© Photograph: Kangala Wildlife Rescue

© Photograph: Kangala Wildlife Rescue

© Photograph: Kangala Wildlife Rescue

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Demon Slayer economics: how the anime juggernaut became a saviour

Once underground art form now props up slumped box office sales and is used by governments to build soft power

An animated drama featuring hordes of carnivorous fiends might not sound like classic box office fodder, but that’s exactly what Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle proved to be in September.

The film set new records for anime – Japanese animated films and series – making more than $70m (£52m) on its opening weekend in the US and £535m so far globally. To put that in context, Ghost in the Shell – an anime classic released in 1995 – made about £2m worldwide.

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© Photograph: ©Koyoharu Gotoge / SHUEISHA, Aniplex, ufotable

© Photograph: ©Koyoharu Gotoge / SHUEISHA, Aniplex, ufotable

© Photograph: ©Koyoharu Gotoge / SHUEISHA, Aniplex, ufotable

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‘You could see bones’: Families’ anguish over coastal erosion threat to Norfolk graves

Bereaved relatives say delays over risks at village churchyards are causing distress and call for council action

Families of people buried in graves vulnerable to coastal erosion say indecision over how to tackle the problem is causing them avoidable anguish about the final resting places of their loved ones.

North Norfolk district council (NNDC) has identified three church graveyards in the villages of Happisburgh, Trimingham, and Mundesley as being at risk of being engulfed by the sea in the coming decades.

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© Photograph: Joshua Bright/The Guardian

© Photograph: Joshua Bright/The Guardian

© Photograph: Joshua Bright/The Guardian

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EU legislation intended to fight deforestation has been effectively ‘dismantled’

Law’s original author points to removal of obligations for downstream traders to verify origin of commodities

It was hailed by campaigners around the world as a game-changing piece of legislation that would help stop deforestation.

But when a bullet-ridden version of the EU’s deforestation regulation, once supposed to be the crown of the Green Deal, finally limped across the legislative line this month, not even its architect was smiling, and one politician said it had been pretty much “dismantled”.

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© Photograph: Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images

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Isiah Whitlock Jr, actor in The Wire and Veep, dies aged 71

Whitlock’s career spanned decades and included roles in many Spike Lee films

The American actor Isiah Whitlock Jr, who played a corrupt politician on HBO crime drama The Wire and had roles in numerous Spike Lee films, died at age 71 on Tuesday, his manager said.

“It is with tremendous sadness that I share the passing of my dear friend and client Isiah Whitlock Jr. If you knew him – you loved him. A brilliant actor and even better person,” Brian Liebman wrote on social media.

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© Photograph: Jim Spellman/WireImage

© Photograph: Jim Spellman/WireImage

© Photograph: Jim Spellman/WireImage

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