Opinium poll says it is ‘incredibly tight’ between Reform UK, Greens and Labour and all have a credible chance of winning

Byelection coverage in the UK would probably be much improved if MPs were only allowed to resign, or die, in constituencies with a politics professor active on social media living nearby. Fortunately, in Gorton and Denton, there is one on hand. Prof Rob Ford, one of the nation’s leading psephologists, lives in the constituency next door, he once wrote a book with the Reform UK candidate (they have since fallen out), and he has been writing at length about the contest on his Substack account.

His latest post was published last night, and it includes analysis of the latest poll. (See 9.11am.) It is well worth reading in full, but here is an extract from his conclusion.

Whoever wins on Friday, the result is likely to confirm a number of trends. Labour are sinking, populist parties are rising on the right and on the left, and as those parties are becoming viable and competitive in ever more seats, elections are becoming even more unpredictable. Prospects have never looked bleaker for the mainstream parties who have dominated British politics for so long - both may soon fall out of the top two in national polling, both face annihilation in the May local and devolved elections, and as the tide of revolt rises everywhere there are no safe seats left for either party’s MPs or local councillors ….

Whichever party emerges victorious on Friday, we may come to see this as the day Labour’s electoral Tinkerbell dies. And if voters’ beliefs about who can and cannot win are changed by this weeks events, then the pace of change may be about to accelerate once again. Hold on to your hats.

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© Photograph: Andy Bruce/Reuters

© Photograph: Andy Bruce/Reuters

© Photograph: Andy Bruce/Reuters

"You should be ashamed of yourself not standing up," Trump snapped as he lashed out at the Democrats.

Brain protein levels can estimate symptom timeline with three to four years, researchers say

Amusing oddballs populate a wise-cracking wheeler-dealer’s tale of leaving London for Dubai in search of loot and laughs

The narrator of Tibor Fischer’s eighth novel, My Bags Are Big, is a walking anachronism. Dan is “an old school crypto geezer” who hails from south London and lives in Dubai, where he drives an old Citroën and wears a Mickey Mouse watch given to him by his father in the 1970s. He’s done well for himself – the bags of the title are a slang term for a cryptocurrency wallet – though it didn’t happen overnight. “Get rich quick? It was very much a get slightly comfortable slowly deal.” His adopted city, he tells us, is “a cross between Las Vegas, an airport departure lounge and a pirate bay”, and a magnet for low-status westerners looking to reinvent themselves: “Assistant masseurs at second division football clubs. Taxi drivers. Linen porters. Nail technicians. Dog groomers. Life coaches. They’re all through the pearly gates, here in Dubai.”

Dan himself is one such individual. Having just turned 60, he relates his journey from Catford to Dubai, via a calamitous career in sports management, a doomed love affair with a quantum physicist, and several brief encounters with David Bowie. In the 80s he won a vindaloo-eating contest and had a Monty Python-esque run-in with some Maoist student revolutionaries. The novel is populated by amusing oddballs, including one character who belongs to an international bollard appreciation society, and another who superstitiously smears caviar on to a lottery ticket in the hope of “giving it a taste of wealth”.

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© Photograph: Anna Shtraus Photography/Getty Images

© Photograph: Anna Shtraus Photography/Getty Images

© Photograph: Anna Shtraus Photography/Getty Images

• Former England keeper has met with Sarina Wiegman

• She adds: ‘I’m human. I’m not perfect, I’m still learning’

Mary Earps said she has “learned some tough lessons” and understands why there was such strong condemnation of comments made in her autobiography last year.

The former England goalkeeper told the Guardian the “last thing she wanted to do” was hurt Sarina Wiegman and she is grateful to have had a chance to meet up with the Lionesses head coach and have a “really positive conversation” since the release of her book in November, which led to a huge backlash.

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© Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The Guardian

© Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The Guardian

© Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The Guardian

Debate to take place in Westminster as some backbench Labour members join calls for a shake-up of the system

Angry backbench Labour MPs have attacked ministers over the student loans crisis, claiming graduates are being “outrageously scammed”.

Ahead of a Commons Westminster Hall debate on Wednesday morning, some Labour MPs joined calls for an urgent shake-up of the current “unfair” system.

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© Photograph: Sean Smith/The Guardian

© Photograph: Sean Smith/The Guardian

© Photograph: Sean Smith/The Guardian

Modine plays a dying director shooting his final film – alongside Derek Jacobi, John Cleese and Stuart Townsend – in this baffling existential drama

Shot in Ireland, so at least the landscapes look pretty, this cuckoo-bananas drama stars Matthew Modine – rocking a white mop of hair and a bushy brush of fake beard – an American film director called Steve who is facing the end of his life. Or maybe he is God himself, casting souls in some indie-budget nonsense about a film director named Steve who looks just like him – or a deluded mortal who thinks he’s God who is fantasising all this on his death bed, or all those things at once.

Like the concept of the Holy Trinity, this is not easy for mere mortals to comprehend, but it has to be said that this is a mostly annoying and only fitfully interesting film. To give The Martini Shot the barest minimum of dues, it at least has a few fine actors in the cast, like Modine himself, Derek Jacobi, John Cleese, Stuart Townsend and, weirdly, Morgana Robinson (so great as Pippa Middleton in The Windsors). They help ease the tedium of waiting for this waffly, “spiritual” self-indulgent nonsense to finish.

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© Photograph: Publicity image

© Photograph: Publicity image

© Photograph: Publicity image

Virginia’s Gov. Abigail Spanberger asked three questions in the Democratic response to President Trump’s State of the Union address. “We did not hear the truth from our president,” she said on Tuesday night. “So let’s speak plainly and honestly.” “Is the president working to make life more affordable for you and your family?” she asked. Abigail Spanberger delivered...

Reality star says she attended exclusive 'Slutty Valentine's Day Party' that required ultra-secretive app to RSVP and left after just four minutes.

“I did nothing illicit. I saw nothing illicit,” Gates told staffers at a Foundation town hall.

The child had last been seen late Friday night, according to a Saturday Facebook post about her being missing.

A Texas Whataburger manager smashed an unruly customer with a trash can after the suspect allegedly berated staff, returned to the restaurant drunk and attacked the employee.

The speeding Texas driver who killed The Dixie Chicks' founding member Laura Lynch was sentenced to 15 years in prison after he struck a plea deal with prosecutors after the deadly 2023 crash.

Anti-corruption group Transparency International have catalogued ‘sanctions circumvention’ channelled through ‘unaccountable jurisdictions’

Russian companies have used Britain’s secretive island territories to conduct $8bn (£5.9bn) of trade since the invasion of Ukraine, according to a report that highlights the flow of goods ranging from oil-drilling equipment to luxury yachts linked to Moscow’s political elite.

The analysis, published a day after the fourth anniversary of Russia’s assault on its neighbour, raises questions over the role played by the British overseas territories in enforcing sanctions designed to turn the screw on the Kremlin.

Yachts linked to allies of Vladimir Putin.

Drilling kit for Kremlin-backed oil projects.

Coal linked to Ukraine’s pro-Russian ex-president.

A jet linked to the Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.

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© Photograph: Yekaterina Shtukina/Reuters

© Photograph: Yekaterina Shtukina/Reuters

© Photograph: Yekaterina Shtukina/Reuters

In the past five years, MPs’ attitudes in the House of Commons towards immigration have swung harder to the right than at almost any other time in the last century

Labour and Conservative MPs are speaking in a more hostile way about immigration than at almost any other time in the last century, the Guardian can reveal.

An unprecedented analysis of 100 years of parliamentary speeches has shown a sharp shift to the right on the issue – with the biggest swing from positive to negative attitudes coming in the past five years.

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© Composite: The Guardian

© Composite: The Guardian

© Composite: The Guardian

Plus: top and bottom being first and last alphabetically, oldest players to outscore their age and cornerless matches

• Mail us with your questions and answers

“With Sheffield Wednesday on the brink of relegation in February [update: they’re now down], what is the earliest a team has been demoted to another division?” asks Kevin Bartholomew.

The earliest confirmed relegation in a season we can find is Peterborough United, in 1967-68, who were relegated from the third tier with a whopping 27 games remaining. After the club were found guilty of breaking league rules relating to match-fee incentives and signing-on bonuses, a Football League management committee confirmed in mid-November of 1968 that Posh would be relegated, whatever their final league placing or points tally. Despite finishing ninth with 50 points, Peterborough were docked 19 of them, rendering them bottom. The club were relegated having scored 79 goals that season, which made them more prolific than all but one of the other teams in Division Three, including champions Oxford United.

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© Photograph: Eleanor Hoad/Every Second Media/Shutterstock

© Photograph: Eleanor Hoad/Every Second Media/Shutterstock

© Photograph: Eleanor Hoad/Every Second Media/Shutterstock

By failing to remove John Davidson’s tic from the broadcast, editors let down both black and disabled people

I attended the Bafta awards on Sunday. And I arrived early enough to hear the Tourette syndrome (TS) campaigner John Davidson, on whom the biographical film I Swear is based, be introduced. He stood up to wave and take in the applause, and we were told that due to his TS, we might expect to hear involuntary vocal outbursts, known as tics, and that we should understand that the Baftas are an inclusive space in which all people are welcome.

Perhaps half the people were listening, others would have been on their phones or engaged in mild chatter. But the tics were instantly audible. When the host, Alan Cumming, was on stage we heard “boring” and there was laughter. When the outgoing chair of Bafta, Sara Putt, was speaking, we heard “shut the fuck up” and there was a mix of knowing silence and confusion. But, as you all now know, it was when Sinners actors Michael B Jordan and Delroy Lindo presented an award that the tics transmuted from things that would be read as benignly antisocial to more outright offensive, as we heard the N-word. There were gasps and whispers of “did he just say … ?”

Jason Okundaye is an assistant Opinion editor at the Guardian

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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© Photograph: Tristan Fewings/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA

© Photograph: Tristan Fewings/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA

© Photograph: Tristan Fewings/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA

• Goalkeeper currently on loan at Trabzonspor

• Onana faces hard task due to form of Lammens

André Onana wants to fight to re-establish himself as Manchester United’s No 1 when his season’s loan at Trabzonspor finishes in May and believes he will be given a chance to do so.

The 29-year-old signed for the Turkish club on 11 September after his erratic form moved United to sign Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp for £18m. He is due to report for pre-season training at United.

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© Photograph: Martin Rickett/PA

© Photograph: Martin Rickett/PA

© Photograph: Martin Rickett/PA

Dear Abby advises a woman who is dealing with her boyfriend's friend's wife, who seems to constantly make her presence known as well as intruding into the personal life of her boyfriend.

Tiley propelled Australian Open to current heights through limitless ambition and brute force, but a stronger player pipeline would be welcome

Craig Tiley arrived as Tennis Australia’s director of tennis in 2005 and, two decades and two high-profile roles later, will leave behind a complex and formidable legacy.

The Australian Open, which he has overseen since his 2006 appointment as tournament director, has expanded into the acclaimed event that dominates the sporting landscape each January. As chief executive of TA since 2013, Tiley’s dual roles have extended his influence beyond the grand slam’s monster success.

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© Photograph: James D Morgan/Getty Images

© Photograph: James D Morgan/Getty Images

© Photograph: James D Morgan/Getty Images

This portrait of a multi-ethnic comic troupe could do with more unpicking, but its reflections on the grind of war, life on the road and the reactive nature of comedy are insightful

It must surely, sometimes, seem to everyone involved that the name should be Palestine Tragedy Club – but this theatre collective, founded by Alaa Shehada from Jenin in the north of the West Bank, and Sam Beale from the UK, is all about laughter. They are exploring the nature of comedy and standup as a response to being a Palestinian now. This documentary follows the group as they attempt to put together a national tour, with shows in Ramallah, Nablus, Haifa, Nazareth and Jerusalem. In so doing, they encounter the basic problem of struggling through roadblocks, and sheer dismay and horror at the wholesale destruction of the war between Israel and Hamas.

We also see how members of the company find themselves, in effect, in exile in Amsterdam and Berlin and experiencing the existential pain of loneliness and homesickness. Things are further complicated at one stage, by being in London – the seat of empire – for a particular show, making it clear that the British are the imperial villains of all this (it is Britain, not Israel, that is singled out for explicit criticism on stage). I would have liked to see more of the Palestine Comedy Club’s actual show, and more of the way the material is developed and performed, but we do get a very entertaining bit from Shehada as he says that over here, he gets solemn and supportive “mmmm”s instead of laughs – the audiences mulling over it, perhaps laughing later when they’ve had time to think.

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© Photograph: © 2022 Regashots

© Photograph: © 2022 Regashots

© Photograph: © 2022 Regashots

BNPL can be a fee-free way to manage cashflow for an essential purchase but keep track of the payment schedule

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is a form of credit that lets you spread payments for everything from clothes, jewellery and white goods to concert tickets, hotel rooms and takeaway meals.

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© Illustration: Jamie Wignall/The Guardian

© Illustration: Jamie Wignall/The Guardian

© Illustration: Jamie Wignall/The Guardian

This picturesque corner of the East Midlands is a well-kept secret and it’s great for exploring by public transport

Fallow deer are grazing under ruined brick walls in the house where Lady Jane Grey was born. It’s a moody spring day at Bradgate Park in Leicestershire and there are few visitors. Instead, there are fieldfares in the hedges and skylarks singing in the mist. I’m walking, through bracken and craggy outcrops, towards Old John Tower, a folly that looks like a giant beer mug on the hill ahead.

It sometimes feels as though England’s much-photographed beauty spots get more booked up and overpriced every day. But there are scenic corners of the country that still fly under the insta-radar and Charnwood, around Loughborough, is one of these. The largest borough in Leicestershire, Charnwood is the area between Leicester and the Nottinghamshire border. Its gentle wooded hills and well-kept villages offer country walks to gourmet pubs and cafes. It’s like a cheaper, quieter Cotswolds with better transport links.

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© Photograph: Stuart972-HDR/Alamy

© Photograph: Stuart972-HDR/Alamy

© Photograph: Stuart972-HDR/Alamy

After a decade at the top, the Bake Off winner is reclaiming her career and refusing to soften her edges. She discusses racism, gaslighting – and why comfort food is more important than ever

In a food world where the trend is for protein and weight-loss injections and sugar is the supervillain, Nadiya’s Quick Comforts seems somewhat contrary. There are golden syrup dumplings. There is a chapter devoted to deep frying, with cheese balls and ingenious deep-fried cannelloni.

“If I could write an entire book on deep frying, I absolutely would,” says Hussain with a laugh. “This is how I cook, this is how I eat, this is how I show love to my family. Everything in there is stuff that my kids absolutely love.” It’s about balance, she says – there are also lovely recipes for soothing plant-based dal and delicious noodles – because “I think anything that’s an extreme version of itself is dangerous”.

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© Photograph: Ollie Tikare/The Guardian

© Photograph: Ollie Tikare/The Guardian

© Photograph: Ollie Tikare/The Guardian