Is the Islamic Republic a messianic theocracy or a brittle dictatorship? It’s neither – as those attacking it are finding out

When the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran on 28 February, the campaign was structured like a textbook air war: destroy defences, degrade retaliatory capabilities and decapitate leadership. Iranian air defences – already battered in last summer’s war – were further dismantled to secure uncontested skies. Missile factories, drone infrastructure and naval assets were hit to erode Iran’s ability to retaliate. And a steady cadence of precision strikes removed senior commanders in what amounted to a sustained attempt to disorient Tehran’s decision-making.

From a purely operational perspective, the advantages have been stark. Once skies are open, the war becomes cheaper: plentiful, relatively inexpensive munitions can replace the long-range systems that defended airspace typically demands.

Ali Vaez is Iran project director and senior adviser to the president at the International Crisis Group

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