Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

• US dollar has worst first half in more than 50 years amid Trump tariffs

Sainsbury’s has recorded its strongest growth since last summer after its Argos chain recorded a big step up in sales as shoppers sought out paddling pools and fans during recent hot weather.

The retail group said Argos, its catalogue shop, was able to achieve growth of 4.4% in the three months to 21 June, up from 1.9% in the previous quarter. Comparable group sales, excluding fuel, rose 4.7% on a year earlier.

Companies have now expanded production slightly for the fourth month in a row, order intake has ceased to fall, and slightly longer delivery times also indicate that demand is picking up a bit.

Against the backdrop of numerous uncertainties - US tariffs, the crisis in the Middle East, and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine - this can certainly be seen as a sign of resilience.

Guardian deputy political editor Jessica Elgot says another concession to rebels MPs is possible

Compass, the leftwing group urging Labour to be more pluralistic, has put out a statement condemning the UC and Pip bill. Its director, Neal Lawson, said:

If your own friends are telling you to put the brakes on, then something has clearly gone wrong. Despite the government’s line, this legislation does not advance Labour values. It is fundamentally at odds with them, and with the views of the mainstream of the party and civil society.”

MPs from across the House, and especially the Labour side, must back Rachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment. This bill’s creation of a three-tiered social security system would condemn thousands to poverty and could lose Labour the next election.

A bill of this magnitude should have been co-produced with disabled people and our organisations from the very start.

Now, ministers scramble to promise ‘consultation’ as one small part of the process. That is too little, too late. Co-production is not a rushed tick-box exercise tagged onto legislation already steaming through Parliament. It means disabled people shaping the system at every step – not just commenting on the detail of changes already baked in.

He is the master of ripped-from-the-headlines drama, a writer who skewers the billionaire class. As Mountainhead takes him into new territory, he talks about his nuanced take on the world’s richest man – and why a bonnet drama may be next

When he gets to his London office on the morning this piece is published, Jesse Armstrong will read it in print, or not at all. Though the building has wifi, he doesn’t use it. “If you’re a procrastinator, which most writers are, it’s just a killer.” Online rabbit holes swallow whole days. “In the end, it’s better to be left with the inadequacies of your thoughts.” He gives himself a mock pep talk. “‘It’s just you and me now, brain.’”

Today, the showrunner of Succession and co-creator of Peep Show is back at home, in walking distance of his workspace. He could be any London dad: 54, salt-and-pepper beard, summer striped T-shirt. But staying offline could feel like a statement too, given Armstrong is also the writer-director of Mountainhead, a film about tech bros. Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Open AI’s Sam Altman, guru financiers Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen: all these and more are mixed up in the movie’s characters, sharing a comic hang in a ski mansion. Outside, an AI launched by one of the group has sparked global chaos. Inside, there is snippy friction about the intra-billionaire pecking order.

• Reigning champion fights back to beat Eala 3-6, 6-2, 6-1

• Injury-plagued title holder displays tough mentality

Barbora Krejcikova avoided the curse of the early Czech-out on Tuesday as she held off the hustle of rising Filipino star Alexandra Eala to progress to the second round at Wimbledon.

The defending women’s champion has seen her season blitzed by injury, and was predicted by Wimbledon’s in-house supercomputers to lose here and echo her compatriot Marketa Vondruosava, who last year became the first women’s champion to exit at the first round since 1994.

Palliative care decisions are sensitive and complex, but the desire for a good death is as universal as the fact of dying

The uncustomary quiet of a Sunday morning in the emergency department is broken by a universally relevant question.

“And if your heart were to suddenly stop beating, what would you like us to do?”

News comes as research finds record lows of Antarctic sea ice had seen more icebergs splintering off ice shelves

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Scientists analysing the cascading impacts of record low levels of Antarctic sea ice fear a loss of critical US government satellite data will make it harder to track the rapid changes taking place at both poles.

Researchers around the globe were told last week the US Department of Defence will stop processing and providing the data, used in studies on the state of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, at the end of this month.

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Collaborating with Indigenous artists and sampling melting glaciers, the Northern Irish artists are championing Arctic culture – and documenting a collapsing world

Russell glacier, at the edge of Greenland’s vast ice sheet, sounds as if it’s crying: moans emanate from deep within the slowly but inexorably melting ice. Andy Ferguson, one half of dance duo Bicep, walks around in its towering shadow recording these eerie sounds. “Everyone comes back changed,” he says of Greenland. “Seeing first-hand climate change happening like this.”

It’s April 2023 and, in the wake of Bicep’s second album Isles cementing them as one of the leading electronic acts globally, Ferguson has travelled to Greenland as part of a project to collaborate with Indigenous musicians and bring the momentous struggle of this region – and even the planet – into focus.

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A new justice department directive may signal a sweeping crackdown on US citizens as part of Trump’s deportation agenda

A justice department memo directing the department’s civil division to target the denaturalization of US citizens around the country has opened up an new avenue for Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda, experts say.

In the US, when a person is denaturalized, they return to the status they held before becoming a citizen. If someone was previously a permanent resident, for example, they will be classified as such again, which can open the door to deportation efforts.

• Arsenal manager says signing from Chelsea a perfect fit

• Hammers face battle to get left-back rated at about £20m

Mikel Arteta has said Arsenal will benefit from Kepa Arrizabalaga’s experience and “real hunger to win” after the world’s most expensive goalkeeper completed a £5m transfer from Chelsea.

Arrizabalaga leaves Chelsea seven years after joining for £72m from Athletic Bilbao and will compete at Arsenal with his Spanish compatriot David Raya. After falling out of favour at Stamford Bridge Arrizabalaga has spent the past two seasons on loan, at Real Madrid and then Bournemouth.

Jury spent more than five hours deliberating on Monday in case of music mogul charged with racketeering conspiracy

The jury in the high-profile federal sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy trial of Sean “Diddy” Combs resumed deliberations on Tuesday morning, after spending more than five hours weighing the charges on Monday without reaching a verdict.

Combs, 55, was arrested in September and faces five felony counts: one count of racketeering conspiracy, two counts of sex trafficking and two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution. He has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges and denies all of the accusations against him.

Police acted in oppressive manner by making arrest without inquiries as to what Despine Green was alleged to have said, judge says

Police acted in an “oppressive and unconstitutional manner” by arresting and detaining a protester for antisemitic chanting without making any inquiries as to what they allegedly said, a judge has found.

Despine Green, who was 22 at the time, was handcuffed, photographed, fingerprinted, had a DNA swab taken from the inside of their cheek and an officer mentioned that a strip search might be necessary.

June temperature records have been broken in Portugal and Spain, as French schools close amid heat

• Europe live – latest updates

Thirteen Italian regions have banned outdoor working during the hottest parts of the day; June temperature records have been smashed in Spain and Portugal; and schools in parts of France have been closed, as an extreme heatwave continues to grip large swathes of Europe.

Tens of thousands of people have also been evacuated from their homes in Turkey due to wildfires; while the top of the Eiffel Tower was closed to tourists on Tuesday as temperatures in Paris were poised to hit 38C (100.4F).

Twenty-year-old man had once aspired to be a firefighter and had only minor contacts with area police

A 20-year-old man’s life appeared to have begun to unravel in the months before authorities say he fatally shot two firefighters and severely wounded a third as they responded to a wildfire near Coeur d’Alene, Idaho.

Wess Roley was living out of his vehicle and his former roommate, TJ Franks Jr, said he shaved off his long hair and started to “kind of go downhill”. The two lived together for about six months in Sandpoint, Idaho, until Roley moved out in January, Franks said on Monday.

Are you extroverted, hedonistic, powerful? Then you’re halfway there, according to a study of 6,000 people in six continents

Name: Cool.

Age: The Fonz was the embodiment of cool, and Happy Days started in 1974. But the concept of cool began earlier, among rebellious subcultures, including jazz musicians in the 1940s and beatniks in the 1950s.

Temporary rules for Germany and Lithuania come as far-right activists initiate border patrols

Poland will introduce temporary border controls with Germany and Lithuania from Monday amid growing tensions over irregular migration, the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, has said.

The decision, made after a government meeting with the Polish border guard on Tuesday, comes in response to growing domestic political pressure and far-right backed protests at Poland’s border crossings with Germany over the weekend.

NGO says rise in interventions has only increased danger as new data shows at least 15 children died in transit last year

Children and babies coming to the UK on small boats from northern France have been teargassed and subjected to tactics such as the discharge of rubber bullets and the slashing of dinghies with knives, according to a report.

The publication on Tuesday of We Want to Be Safe, by the French non-governmental organisation Project Play, came as the latest figures on daily crossings released by the UK government reached an all-time high of 19,982 for the first six months of the year, a 40% increase compared with the same period last year.

Huge crowds defied a ban to party on Saturday, yet authoritarians across the continent are targeting LGBTQ+ people to spread division

An animal is at its most dangerous when it is wounded, and the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, was already haemorrhaging supporters before a record number of people took to the streets on Saturday to support Budapest Pride, which his government had legally banned in March.

The pulsating, international, love-fuelled parade, which stretched more than a mile through Budapest’s most prominent landmarks, was everything the Hungarian far right hates. And for Orbán and his nationalist party, Fidesz, the public defiance of Pride organisers, European diplomats and those of us who filled the streets in spite of threats of facial-recognition surveillance, arrests and fines has dented his strongman reputation.

Blink 182’s Tom DeLonge’s directorial debut is nicely shot and benefits from a good cast – but its meandering journey through UFOs and a urinating Bigfoot can be a bit bumpy

Blink-182’s Tom DeLonge directs and co-writes this sci-fi slacker comedy which sees a trio of stoner wastrels hoping to investigate what happened to the father of one of their number, who mysteriously disappeared many years ago and is presumed dead. It’s a slightly frustrating experience, because the film has got loads going for it but could be just that little bit better. So many of the ingredients are right: it’s nicely shot and directed, and the casting feels on point – it’s not so much that you buy these evidently non-teenage actors as teenagers, but that their presence is part of a noble tradition of adults playing teens in films. It’s as cosily familiar to anyone who came of age in the 1990s as baggy skate trousers and a band hoodie.

This sense of cultural time capsule extends to the characters themselves: they feel like 90s teenagers rather than modern-day ones, and that’s presumably a bonus for anyone drawn hither by DeLonge’s status as guitarist and singer for one of the more enduring bands of the pop punk explosion of that decade. These kids are crude and puerile, and it’s somehow fun to see the American Pie-type kid in a contemporary setting; certainly anyone with a fondness for that particular type of high school movie will inhale a pleasant hit of nostalgia without having to think too hard about whether there’s much value here.

Tim Davie was informed of incident while at Glastonbury but live stream of stage continued to be aired in hours after

The BBC’s director general is facing questions over why he did not pull the live-stream footage of Bob Vylan after being informed during a visit to Glastonbury of the chants calling for the death of Israeli soldiers.

Tim Davie, who has led the BBC for nearly five years, was told of the chanting of “death, death to the IDF [Israel Defense Forces]” by Bob Vylan’s vocalist after it had been broadcast live on the BBC on Saturday afternoon.

The Guardian’s picture editors select photographs from around the world

Warning: graphic content

The unlikely return of the bentwood box underscores the challenges facing Indigenous communities working to reclaim items raided from their lands

When the plane took off from Vancouver’s airport, bound north for the Great Bear Rainforest, Q̓íx̌itasu Elroy White felt giddy with excitement.

The plane traced a route along the Pacific Ocean and British Columbia’s coast mountains, still snow-capped in late May.

From the Maga crowd to Nato’s secretary general, everyone is addressing the president of the US as if he was their actual father. Make it stop!

Is your name Barron, Donald Jr, Eric, Ivanka or Tiffany Trump? No? Then I regret to inform you that President Donald John Trump is almost certainly not your daddy. I say “almost certainly” because narcissistic billionaires do have a nasty habit of spawning willy-nilly. Just look at Elon Musk and Pavel Durov – the latter is the Telegram founder, who has more than 100 children in 12 countries via sperm donation.

Still, unless you are a very high-IQ individual, with an orange glow, an insatiable appetite for money-making schemes, and a weird belief that you invented the word “caravan”, I think it’s safe to say that you’re probably not Trump’s offspring.

In the social media age, football is a fraction of the Portuguese Übermensch’s appeal and he is untroubled by his paymasters’ morals

The winners of next season’s AFC Champions League Two, Asia’s second-tier club competition, will receive about £1.8m. The winners of the Saudi King’s Cup will receive just over £1m. Prize money for the Saudi Pro League is not disclosed, but by the most recent available figures (for 2022-23) is in roughly the same area. Weekly attendances at the King Saud University Stadium, where top-tier ticket prices start at about £12, range between 10,000 and 25,000, although of course you also have to factor in pie and programme sales above that.

And so you really have to applaud Al-Nassr’s ambition in handing an estimated £492m to Cristiano Ronaldo over the next two years. Even if they sweep the board at domestic level, if they fight their way past Istiklol of Tajikistan’s 1xBet Higher League and Al-Wehdat of the Jordanian Pro League, if they extract maximum value from merch and sponsorships, you still struggle to see how they can cover a basic salary that comes to £488,000 a day, even before the bonuses and blandishments that will push the total package well beyond that.

There are many nasty idiots in the world – but whether the offence was at a music festival or online, none of these people should be in jail

News that Avon and Somerset police have launched criminal investigations into the bands Bob Vylan and Kneecap for their Glastonbury sets reminds me that we have a severe prisons crisis in the UK, and that we need to build more of them. Perhaps we should build a special one for all the people we keep criminally investigating for saying, rather than doing, bad things. I’m pretty sure they have a few of those types of prisons in other countries. Although, it must be said that those are normally countries run by people we consider bad. Confusing! But look, maybe we’re becoming the sort of country where we imprison lots of people for saying awful things. I don’t … love this look for us, I have to say. But no doubt someone has thought it all through very, very carefully.

If so, they could put the two nasty idiots from Bob Vylan in it. Obviously all of Kneecap, too. Maybe those guys would have their cell on the same landing as Lucy Connolly, the woman who was imprisoned for two years and seven months for a repulsive tweet in the wake of the Southport child killings. They could be joined by whoever at the BBC didn’t pull the Glastonbury live stream on Saturday after Bob Vylan started their repulsive chants, given that Conservative frontbencher Chris Philp is now officially calling for the corporation to be “urgently” investigated. I see Chris is also calling for the BBC to be prosecuted – so I guess he’s already done the police investigation for them, and all at the same time as absolutely aceing his brief as shadow home secretary for where-are-they-now political outfit the Conservative party.

Former presidents Barack Obama and George W Bush and singer Bono send emotional message to staff as organisation closes

Barack Obama and George W Bush have criticised the closure of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), as a study warned it could result in “a staggering number” of avoidable deaths – more than 14 million over five years.

The former US presidents made rare public criticisms of the Trump administration as they took part in a video farewell for USAID staffers on Monday on its last day as an independent organisation.

This year marks the first time that local NWS offices have stopped round-the-clock operations in the agency’s history

A brutal stretch of severe weather has taxed communities on the eastern fringes of tornado alley this spring and early summer, while harsh staffing cuts and budget restrictions have forced federal meteorologists to attempt to forecast the carnage with less data.

As of 30 June, there have already been more than 1,200 tornadoes nationwide.

Millions of Americans a year visit national parks and many leave their business anywhere. Contrary to popular belief, that deluge of poop is not going to decompose

Last year, I watched a man squat and relieve himself 30ft (9 metres) from me, holding on to his vehicle’s front wheel with one hand to steady himself. My dog and I were on our usual walk up the dirt road that bisects our old mining town, nestled just shy of 10,000ft (3km) in south-western Colorado.

It was a short walk from the house, and we were out just to get a little movement. Not to see one.

Spain are expected to win the tournament for the first time but England have a Golden Boot contender in Alessia Russo

It feels as if Spain and a revitalised Germany have the wind in their sails to meet in Basel, even if Aitana Bonmatí’s illness is a real worry for the world champions. Spain will win out on the night. England know the ropes and cannot be ruled out but their path to glory looks complicated. Nick Ames

Time is short in Australia to make an impression on Andy Farrell and be one of the 23 in Brisbane on 19 July

The British & Irish Lions have barely started their trek around Australia, but the all-important Test series is fast approaching. Some definitive selection calls will soon have to be made and this week’s games, against the Queensland Reds in Brisbane on Wednesday and the New South Wales Waratahs in Sydney on Saturday, will be pivotal for certain individuals. The Breakdown takes a look at the five main areas of debate.

• Spaniard substituted in fifth game since returning

• Guardiola blames profligacy for shock loss to Al-Hilal

After Manchester City crashed out of the Club World Cup 4-3 to Al-Hilal in Orlando, Pep Guardiola blamed a lack of ruthlessness, and said Rodri had sustained an injury setback.

City were eliminated by Marcus Leonardo’s 112th-minute winner on Monday night at the Camping World Stadium in the shock result of the inaugural 32-team Club World Cup. Guardiola’s team wasted a number of chances, with Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland, Josko Gvardiol, Rúben Dias and Savinho among those who failed to put City out of sight in the opening half.

• The first round matches continue on day two at SW19

• Security ‘critical’, says official over concerns | Mail Daniel

Paul, yet to settle, hands Monday two break points … which he hands straight back. From there, the hold is quickly secured.

Thinking of Paul more generally, though, he’s in the same section of the draw as Sinner. There’s not loads else there, so he’ll be wondering if, finally, he can beat someone better than him on the biggest stage.

Ryland Headley sentenced to minimum of 20 years after what is thought to be oldest cold case solved in modern English policing history

A 92-year-old man has been jailed for life with a minimum of 20 years after being convicted of the rape and murder of a woman in Bristol 58 years ago.

The sentencing judge, Mr Justice Sweeting, told Ryland Headley that he would spend the rest of his life in prison for killing Louisa Dunne at her home in 1967.

Marathon vote on ‘one big, beautiful bill’ passes 24-hour mark as Trump heads to harsh immigration detention center in mosquito-infested Everglades

• What’s in Trump’s big, beautiful bill? Tax cuts, deportations and more

The senate has adopted an amendment offered by Republican senator Joni Ernst – who represents Iowa - to prevent jobless millionaires from claiming unemployment compensation.

Lawmakers voted 99-1 to strike the AI regulation ban from the bill by adopting an amendment offered by Republican senator Marsha Blackburn.

Public health warnings as heatwave raises concerns about impact of climate change

• What you need to know about heatwaves

The French prime minister François Bayrou, who attended a government crisis meeting over the heatwave, was asked about the great difficulty of French schools to handle the heatwave.

More than 1,350 schools across France were fully or partially closed on Tuesday as classrooms proved dangerously hot for children and teachers, amid anger from teaching unions.

Would Britpop have happened? Would bands still dream as big? As Oasis prepare for their return gig on Friday, it’s worth asking what their cultural impact has been

In the peculiar counterfactual 2019 romcom Yesterday, the Beatles suddenly and mysteriously vanish from history, remembered by just one man. In the interests of a cheap joke, writer Richard Curtis improbably suggests that every band in the world would still exist in the Beatles’ absence, bar one: Oasis.

But what about a world without Oasis? As the Gallaghers themselves would admit, they weren’t innovators like the Beatles, whose every move changed the course of popular music. If Noel had never joined Liam’s band at the end of 1991, Creation Records might well have gone bust, Manchester City would have had less pop cachet, and The Royle Family would have needed a different theme tune, but music wouldn’t have sounded significantly different. Today, new bands are more likely to cite the spiky intelligence of Radiohead or the Smiths than Oasis’s broad strokes, and very few younger than Arctic Monkeys expects to fill stadiums.

For two years, we’ve waited for a final ceasefire that has never come. Peace will be delayed as long as our lives are considered disposable

Last Tuesday night, Donald Trump announced on social media that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, ending what he called a “12-day war”. It was the second war this year, after India and Pakistan’s four-day conflict, to start and end under Trump’s watch. They followed another, earlier conflict between Lebanon and Israel during President Joe Biden’s term.

Here in Gaza, all eyes were fixed on the Iran-Israel conflict. Even cut off from the internet, people found ways to follow the news – on the radio, or by catching weak phone signals by climbing to high rooftops or walking near the sea, or just by staying up all night watching the sky, where some of the missiles launched from Iran could be seen from Gaza. Many wondered if Trump, the man who once promised to stop “endless wars”, would seize the moment to stop not only war on Iran but also the genocide in Gaza.

Hassan Abo Qamar is a Palestinian writer and journalist based in Gaza

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Unnamed three from Countess of Chester hospital held on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter, police say

Three bosses at the hospital where Lucy Letby worked have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter, police have said.

The three, who have not been named, were arrested on Monday as part of the investigation into the actions of leaders at the Countess of Chester hospital (CoCH).

We lock eyes while shepherding unruly, ungrateful teens in and out of changing rooms but don’t speak a word. This needs to change

If there is a solidarity on Earth tighter than “bored middle-aged mothers in a clothes shop”, I don’t know what it is. Whether in Primark, Urban Outfitters or H&M, the crowd is always the same: some teens are in gangs and they are having a fine old time; others, sometimes in sibling pairs, are with their mum, presumably because they have yet to find a way to detach her from her credit card. It’s like that bit in an action movie where you need a guy’s fingerprint to open a vault, so you cut off his arm, except, regrettably, in this case, they have to take the entire body.

Some of us are too hot; others are too embarrassing to be believed and have been told that multiple times between each clothes rack. But the main thing we have in common is that we are all incredibly bored. It’s one of those things about youth that I don’t miss at all, along with paralysing social anxiety and blackheads: the ability to parse the difference between one T-shirt and another for hours; to look at the same pair of jeans for 15 minutes straight, your imagination running riot over what they might look like across every jumper combination and landscape. This is not a spectator sport, yet spectate you must, because ultimately you will have to give a view, so that, whatever you say, they can do the opposite.

Exclusive: Green groups furious at plans to let member states buy controversial carbon offsets from abroad

EU member states may be allowed to count controversial carbon credits from developing countries towards their climate targets, the European climate commissioner has said as states meet for a crucial decision on the issue.

The EU will discuss on Wednesday its target for slashing carbon dioxide by 2040, with an expected cut of 90% compared with 1990 levels, in line with the bloc’s overarching target of reaching net zero by mid-century.