Chancellor to deliver fiscal statement, billed as decisive moment for fate of Starmer government, at 12.30pm

• Tax, pensions, savings: what to expect in the budget

• Reeves’s high-stakes budget in five key charts

• Could you do better than Reeves? Play our game

Yesterday the Metropolitan police said they were not allowing a planned protest in Westminster by farmers to coincide with the budget. Farmers have been protesting regularly about the decision announced in Rachel Reeves’ budget last year to extend inheritance tax to farms.

The decision was criticised by the Conservative party, who said originally the Met had indicated the protest would be allowed. Last night Victoria Atkins, the shadow environment secretary, issued a statement saying:

It doesn’t smell right, particularly when we think of the regular and frequent protests that are allowed in SW1 which inconvenience motorists, residents and businesses without consideration. Is this to save the chancellor embarrassment ahead of her budget of broken promises?”

A number of tractors were seen driving through Westminster early on Wednesday, with police stopping around 20 of them in the vicinity.

This included a farmer dressed as Father Christmas, his tractor carrying a large spruce tree and bearing a sign that read “Farmer Christmas – the naughty list: Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, Diane Abbott, Angela Rayner & the BBC”.

Working in a bookshop while failing to write a novel, the narrator admits to being a ‘living cliche’ in this bitter black comedy

“I had become a living cliche: the cantankerous bookseller,” the narrator declares a third of the way through John Tottenham’s debut novel. “No book or movie that included a scene set in a bookstore was complete without such a stock ‘character’.” That’s one way to pre-empt criticism, and Sean Hangland is just such a stock figure. Embittered, rude, apathetic, resentful of the success and happiness of others and intellectually snobbish, he’s a 48-year-old aspiring writer who makes ends meet, just about, working in an independent bookshop in a gentrifying part of LA.

He worries about turning 50 having made nothing of his life. He notes, lugubriously, that he barely seems to get any writing done and that – having no gift for plot, characterisation or prose – the novel he claims to be trying to produce will be lousy anyway. He keeps bumping into old friends whose books are being published by hip independent presses or who have acquired nice girlfriends, or both. His teeth are in bad shape.

Three ICC judges have been put on a list with terrorists after approving an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu. This is the charade of the ‘rules-based order’

The fate of one French judge is a case study in the west’s long unravelling. Nicolas Guillou cannot shop online. When he used Expedia to book a hotel in his own country, the reservation was cancelled within hours. He is “blacklisted by much of the world’s banking system”, unable to use most bank cards.

Guillou, you see, has been sanctioned by the United States, putting him on a 15,000-strong list alongside al-Qaida terrorists, drug cartels and Vladimir Putin. Why? Because alongside two other judges of the international criminal court pre-trial chamber I, he approved arrest warrants for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, and Mohammed Deif, the former commander of Hamas’s military wing. Guillou and his colleagues had “actively engaged in the ICC’s illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America or our close ally, Israel”, the US claimed when imposing the sanctions in June. All are now barred from entering the US – but that is the least of the consequences.

Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist

A game cast and some decent twists help to elevate this passably entertaining London-set Christmas offering about a department store robbery

We’re a few weeks into the annual Netflix Christmas dump and standards have already fallen below freezing. In both Alicia Silverstone’s A Merry Little Ex-Mas and Minka Kelly’s Champagne Problems, motions were lethargically, and cheaply, gone through without any seasonal sparkle added, a low bar once again set for the next month and change.

So while there’s nothing all that remarkable about the streamer’s latest festive effort, crime caper turned romcom Jingle Bell Heist, there’s just about enough to give it an edge over its more anemic peers. Rather than being set in Snowflakeville or some other absurdly named small town in Middle America (while being clearly filmed in Canada), it’s shot on location in London during Christmas 2023 (directed by Mike Flanagan’s long-time cinematographer Michael Fimognari). The city does a great deal of heavy-lifting with every pub, caff and high street helping to conjure up a real sense of place usually absent in such territory (it also means no need for increasingly distracting fake CG snow). There are roles for British comedy stars like Peter Serafinowicz and Amandaland’s wonderful Lucy Punch and the soundtrack opts for alternative holiday songs from Low and Run-DMC over yet another easily affordable cover of All I Want for Christmas is You. There’s also a plot that isn’t quite as rote as we’re used to with no career-minded woman waiting to be tamed by a family-craving hunk. These might not sound like major, applause-worthy diversions but in the hopelessly generic, and at times unforgivably lazy, world of Netflix Christmas fodder, it’s not nothing.

Daniel Craig is joined by a sparkling array of talent including O’Connor, Glenn Close and Josh Brolin in this latest murder mystery with a religious undercurrent

Rian Johnson’s delectable new Knives Out film is a chocolate box: mouthwateringly delicious on the first layer and … well, perfectly tasty on the second. Daniel Craig returns as private detective Benoit Blanc, in a slightly more serious mode than before, with not as many droll suth’n phrases and quirky faux-naif mannerisms, but rocking a longer hairstyle and handsomely tailored three-piece suit.

Blanc arrives at a Catholic church in upstate New York to investigate the sensational murder of its presiding priest, Monsignor Jefferson Wicks, a ferocious clerical alpha male played by Josh Brolin, thundering his reactionary views from the pulpit. (That “Monsignor” title can only be bestowed by the pope incidentally: presumably Benedict XVI or John Paul II, not milksop liberals like Francis or Leo XIV.) And prime suspect is the sweet-natured, thoughtful junior priest Father Jud Duplenticy, amusingly played by Josh O’Connor, who was upset by the Monsignor’s heartless attitudes and was caught on video threatening to cut him out of the church like a cancer. Atheist Blanc faces off with the young priest, a worldview culture-clash which leads to an extraordinary encounter with the Resurrection itself.

From joint bank accounts and pooled savings to mortgages and tax allowances, talk about money for a happy financial future together

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer for whether you should manage your finances jointly, separately or somewhere in the middle.

In 2010, the photographer Aida Muluneh created the Addis Foto Fest in Ethiopia’s capital to showcase talents from Africa and beyond. Since the pandemic, the event has boomed online to include work without borders

The anthropologist and father of New York’s mayor-elect offers a revisionist view of modern Ugandan history

Children of Ugandan Indians are having a bit of a moment. Electropop boasts Charlie XCX; statecraft, the Patels: Priti the shadow foreign secretary, Kash the FBI boss. And while the ones who go into politics have tended to be conservative, we now have a counterexample in Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who clinched the New York mayoralty at the beginning of this month.

The anomaly is best explained by the politics of his father, Mahmood Mamdani. The apple, it seems, did not roll especially far down the postcolonial hillside. Mahmood, professor of government and anthropology at Columbia University, has long styled himself as the left’s answer to VS Naipaul. Where the Nobel-winning curmudgeon surveyed postcolonial Africa with disdain, revelling in the wreckage of independence, Mamdani presents a more forgiving view: pathos instead of pity, paradox instead of despair. If independence didn’t live up to the promise, he argues, it was because the colonised had been dealt a losing hand.

As I watched the news about Australia’s devastating bushfires in 2020 I felt compelled to help. It was the start of a new relationship with nature, and a reminder of my childhood joie de vivre

As hookup sites go, it was in another league. I was looking for a different kind of soulmate and I was spoilt for choice. Would it be Floyd, “a stylish poser and a winner of hearts”? Or Bobby, “who loves cuddling and is a bit of a showoff”? Or could it be the “beautiful and incredibly sweet Morris with a gentle nature”? One stood out. Not only was he “very affectionate” but he was also “a bit of a troublemaker – always exploring and often found sitting on the rocks”. Just what I was looking for; I swiped right. That’s how I met Jarrah. My koala.

A month before, in 2020, I’d seen a newsflash about the bushfires in Australia. The effect on the continent’s wildlife was devastating. An estimated 61,000 koalas had been killed or injured among 143 million other native mammals. There were two things I felt I could do from the UK: one was to make koala mittens to protect their burnt paws (following a pattern I found online); and two, I could adopt a koala and send monthly donations to protect them in the wild. So I joined the Australian Koala Foundation, which is dedicated to the marsupials’ survival.

President Lai Ching-te declared there was ‘no room for compromise on national security’ in face of escalating harassment and espionage

Beijing’s threats to Taiwan are “intensifying” and its preparations to invade are speeding up, Taiwan’s government has said while announcing a $40bn special defence budget and a swathe of measures to counter Chinese attacks.

The Taiwan president, Lai Ching-te, said there was “no room for compromise on national security”, and he was committed to boosting Taiwan’s defences in conjunction with US support.

Plus: long waits to play at a World Cup, champions being thrashed and title-winners with a negative goal difference

• Mail us with your questions and answers

“Idrissa Gueye’s red card for slapping Michael Keane at Old Trafford made me wonder – which other players have put hands on a teammate during a game?” asks Conor Humphries.

We covered this in a question back in 2004 – but 21 years is a long time in football, never mind intersquad violence, so it’s due an upgrade. First, a brief summary of those we mentioned in the 2004 article.

The CMP system means Huda Ammori will not be allowed to know what allegations were made against her

At some point in the challenge to the ban on Palestine Action beginning on Wednesday, the co-founder of the direct action group will be asked to leave courtroom five at the Royal Courts of Justice, as will her legal team and most others present. Then the case will continue without them.

When Huda Ammori returns to the room, the special advocate – a security-cleared barrister – who represented her interests in her absence will not be allowed to tell her or her legal team what evidence was presented against Palestine Action. If Ammori asks what allegations were made directly against her, the special advocate must not tell her, even though that means she will have no chance to rebut them.

Brutal economic realities are prompting a shift in Labour’s tone on Europe. But will it dare tell the whole truth about Britain’s predicament?

Rachel Reeves has approached this week’s budget like a reluctant swimmer inching into freezing water, trying to ease the unpleasantness by incremental exposure. The chancellor started paddling delicately around the problem of insufficient revenue at the end of the summer. First, she refused to stand by former insistence that tax rises in last year’s budget would be the last. “The world has changed,” she said.

Then, earlier this month, she took a bigger stride into the icy waves. There was a speech promising to “do what is necessary” to fund public services and keep borrowing costs down. Downing Street did not discourage speculation that this meant reneging on Labour’s 2024 manifesto promise not to raise income tax. Too deep! Within 10 days the Treasury had retracted the hint. The manifesto commitment still stood after all. As any cold-water swimmer knows, this aborted plunge and shivering retreat is the worst of all techniques. Nothing prolongs the pain like indecision.

Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist

• Verona venue to host Milano-Cortina opening ceremony

• Critics see changes to 2,000-year-old arena as blasphemy

A 2,000-year-old Roman amphitheatre is to be made fully accessible to people with disabilities before the Winter Paralympic Games in Milano‑Cortina, as organisers prioritise legacy with 100 days to go.

The conversion of the Arena di Verona, which will host the Paralympics opening ceremony, includes the addition of a lift and toilets to a structure older than the Colosseum. Described by the Milano-Cortina 2026 chief executive, Andrea Varnier, as “the symbol of our Paralympic Games”, he admits the conversion has also been considered as an act of “blasphemy” by some traditionalists.

The artist and his wife, novelist Kiran Millwood Hargrave, lost seven pregnancies before their daughter was born. They explain how his nude paintings of her helped them process their grief – and eventual joy

‘The subject comes with huge baggage and I like that,” says Tom de Freston. The painter and I are in his studio in a village outside Oxford, surrounded by nude portraits of his wife, the novelist Kiran Millwood Hargrave. “I wanted to ask, ‘What does it mean as a male artist to be looking at the female figure? And where does the agency sit?’”

We have been talking about Titian’s Poesie series, how those paintings – commissioned by the most powerful man in the world at the time, King Philip II of Spain – fetishise the naked female body. “Obviously there’s other things going on in them … I think Titian’s often prodding at morality and power,” De Freston says.

Layer after luscious layer of spuds, smoked trout and cavolo nero in a herby cream and topped with bubbly cheese, and crisp roast potatoes tossed in a buttery wine reduction

A deliciously decadent gratin with layers of potato, smoked trout and cavolo nero all smothered in herb-infused cream and finished with a grating of gruyere. It’s the ultimate cosy potato main course. Then, for a flavourful twist on everyone’s favourite part of a roast dinner, crisp roast potatoes tossed in a lightly spiced and herby butter emulsion.

The oil painting depicting the artist’s son Jean had never been exhibited or sold before.

A previously unknown work by French impressionist painter Pierre-Auguste Renoir depicting his son Jean sold for €1.8m ($2.08m) at a Paris auction, according to the auction house.

The oil painting – L’enfant et ses jouets – Gabrielle et le fils de l’artiste, Jean (The Child and His Toys – Gabrielle and the son’s artist, Jean) – had never been exhibited or sold before.

Brazilian teenager’s goal in win against Barcelona was a classic and the winger could end up as one of the very best

Everything Lamine Yamal does oozes quality. Even when he is strolling about looking dejected, which he did quite a bit at Stamford Bridge, he does it with the nonchalant grace of a star. He caresses the ball rather than kicking it, generating remarkable power from limited back-lift. He plays on the balls of his feet, always alert, always able to go either way. He glides rather than runs, but does so at speed. He has already finished as runner-up in the Ballon d’Or. But he was not the best 18-year-old right-sided forward on the pitch on Tuesday, not even close.

In Estêvão, brought in from Palmeiras for a fee that could rise to £52m, Chelsea have recruited a player who could end up as one of the very best. He has been making more and more of an impression since scoring the late winner against Liverpool last month. His last four starts for Chelsea have brought four goals, and he also scored in both of Brazil’s friendlies during the international break. It’s very early, but Brazil may at last have found the player they desperately wanted to have found in Neymar.

The US president made jokes at the annual turkey pardoning ceremony. It went as well as you would expect

Don’t give up the day job. On Tuesday, Donald Trump came to the annual Thanksgiving turkey pardoning ceremony at the White House ready to serve up some political satire. It went about as well as you would expect.

Like a startled turkey flapping in zigzags, the US president’s speech ricocheted bafflingly from topic to topic. He told jokes in the worst possible taste and watched them arc through the Rose Garden sky before landing with a thud. And on a day intended for charity and good cheer, he described a state governor as “a big, fat slob”.

From the top lollipop person to the most dedicated convenience store managers, we celebrate the winners of the year’s most unusual accolades

Michael Leech, from Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire, has been named the UK bus driver of the year

As casualties mount, recruitment is expanding. Three women talk about why they signed up for a brutal combat environment

Women have been involved in Ukraine’s drone operations since the early months of the full-scale invasion, but as shortages in the military increase their presence has grown, particularly in FPV (first-person-view) attack units.

Casualty figures are not disclosed but widely understood to be high, and Ukraine is becoming reliant on civilians to fill roles that once belonged to trained military personnel. A short but intensive 15-day course is given to a trainee operator for frontline deployment, a turnaround that reflects the urgent need.

Indoor and outdoor training courses set up for trainee pilots at a drone school

Environmental charity Fidra says 168 of 195 SSSIs it surveyed are contaminated with tiny pellets

Plastic nurdles have been found in 84% of important nature sites surveyed in the UK.

Nurdles are tiny pellets that the plastics industry uses to make larger products. They were found in 168 of 195 sites of special scientific interest (SSSIs), so named because of the rare wildlife they harbour. They are given extra protections in an effort to protect them from pollution.

Chancellor to set out tax and spending plans shaped by weak productivity, high borrowing costs and cost of living crisis

• What to expect: tax, VAT, pensions, savings and more

Rachel Reeves will unveil her make-or-break autumn budget on Wednesday, after months of speculation over tax rises.

In a critical speech in the Commons, with the government under intense pressure, the chancellor is expected to announce tax and spending measures aimed at plugging a multibillion-pound shortfall in the public finances.

In Fritzi’s Footsteps tells story of a girl growing up in Leipzig who witnesses the fall of the Berlin Wall

The creators of a children’s television series about life in communist East Germany have said they hope it will awaken interest in the region’s history, after it was awarded an International Emmy.

Auf Fritzis Spuren (In Fritzi’s Footsteps) tells the story of a 12-year-old girl living in the eastern city of Leipzig and how she experiences life in the east and the events that lead to the fall of the Berlin Wall.