Faced with economic coercion, Europe has trodden carefully. My experience tells me that’s not enough

In February of last year, Donald Trump convened the first full cabinet meeting of his second term in the White House. He proudly announced his intention to impose sweeping tariffs on the US’s closest allies in Europe. When asked by a reporter whether Europe might retaliate, Trump sounded confident. “They can’t,” he said. Pressed to explain, he continued: “We are the pot of gold. We’re the one that everybody wants. And they can retaliate, but it cannot be a successful retaliation.” As Trump saw it, Europe was weak and feckless – a minnow compared with the American economic juggernaut. When confronted with a US president prepared to throw his country’s weight around, Europe would certainly cave.

In the year since, Trump has repeatedly wielded America’s economic might against Europe, from coercing the EU and the UK to swallow lopsided trade deals to pressuring Denmark to sell him Greenland. And time and again, his assessment of European countries – that they would scurry to him, hat in hand, eager to make a deal – has been vindicated.